Rebuttal of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds?
Abstract
14 months ago, Paul Christiano and AI Impacts both published forceful and well-received take-downs of many arguments for fast (discontinuous) takeoff. I haven’t seen any rebuttals that are written by established researchers, longer than comments, or otherwise convincing. The longer there is no response, the less weight I put on the outside view that proponents of fast takeoff may be right. Where are the rebuttals? Did I miss them? Is the debate decided? Did nobody have time or motivation to write something? Is the topic too hard to explain? Why rebuttals would be useful: -Give the community a sense of the extent of expert disagreement to form outside views. -Prioritization in AI policy, and to a lesser extent safety, depends on the likelihood of discontinuous progress. We may have more leverage in such cases, but this could be overwhelmed if the probability is low. -Motivate more people to work on MIRI’s research which seems more important to solve early if there is fast takeoff.
Cite this
@online{gloor-rebuttal-of-2019,
title = {Rebuttal of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds?},
author = {Lukas Gloor},
url = {https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PzAnWgqvfESgQEvdg/any-rebuttals-of-christiano-and-ai-impacts-on-takeoff-speeds#zFEhTxNqEp3eZbjLZ},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-04-01},
howpublished = {LessWrong},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {online}
}