The Evidentialist's Wager

Suppose that an altruistic and morally motivated agent who is uncertain between evidential decision theory (EDT) and causal decision theory (CDT) finds herself in a situation in which the two theories give conflicting verdicts. We argue that even if she has significantly higher credence in CDT, she should nevertheless act in accordance with EDT.

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Superintelligence as a Cause or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering

Discussions about the possible consequences of creating superintelligence have included the possibility of existential risk, usually understood as the risk of human extinction. We argue that suffering risks (s-risks) present comparable severity and probability. Just as with existential risks, s-risks can be caused as well as reduced by superintelligent AI.

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The future of growth: near-zero growth rates

Exponential growth is a common pattern found throughout nature. Yet it is also a pattern that tends not to last, as growth rates tend to decline sooner or later. In biology, this pattern of exponential growth that wanes off is found in everything from the development of individual bodies — for instance, in the growth of […]

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A Virtue of Precaution Regarding the Moral Status of Animals with Uncertain Sentience

We address the moral importance of fish, invertebrates such as crustaceans, snails and insects, and other animals about which there is qualified scientific uncertainty about their sentience. We argue that, on a sentientist basis, one can at least say that how such animals fare make ethically significant claims on our character. It is a requirement of a morally decent (or virtuous) person that she at least pays attention to and is cautious regarding the possibly morally relevant aspects of such animals.

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How Feasible Is the Rapid Development of Artificial Superintelligence?

Two crucial questions in discussions about the risks of artificial superintelligence are: 1) How much more powerful could an AI become relative to humans, and 2) how easily could superhuman capability be acquired? To answer these questions, this article reviews the literature on human expertise and intelligence and discusses its relevance for AI.

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