Responses to apparent rationalist confusions about game / decision theory
I’ve encountered various claims about how AIs would approach game theory and decision theory that seem pretty importantly mistaken. Some of these confusions probably aren’t that big a deal on their own, and I’m definitely not the first to point out several of these, even publicly. But collectively I think these add up to a common worldview that underestimates the value of technical work to reduce risks of AGI conflict. I expect that smart agents will likely avoid catastrophic conflict overall—it’s just that the specific arguments for expecting this that I’m responding to here aren’t compelling (and seem overconfident). For each section, I include in the footnotes some examples of the claims I’m pushing back on (or note whether I’ve primarily seen […]
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