Peer-reviewed publications

2019

Baum, Seth D; Armstrong, Stuart; Ekenstedt, Timoteus; Häggström, Olle; Hanson, Robin; Kuhlemann, Karin; Maas, Matthijs M; Miller, James D; Salmela, Markus; Sandberg, Anders; Sotala, Kaj; Torres, Phil; Turchin, Alexey; Yampolskiy, Roman V. Long-term trajectories of human civilization. Foresight, 21 (1), pp. 53-83, 2019.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Approval-directed agency and the decision theory of Newcomb-like problems. Synthese, 2019, (Runner-up in the "AI alignment prize").
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory

2018

Oesterheld, Caspar. Robust program equilibrium. Theory and Decision, 86 (1), 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory

2017

Sotala, Kaj. How feasible is the rapid development of artificial superintelligence?. Physica Scripta, 92 (11), 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Sotala, Kaj; Gloor, Lukas. Superintelligence as a Cause or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering. Informatica, 41 (4), 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Knutsson, Simon; Munthe, Christian. A Virtue of Precaution Regarding the Moral Status of Animals with Uncertain Sentience. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics, 30 (2), 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Other

2016

Oesterheld, Caspar. Formalizing Preference Utilitarianism in Physical World Models. Synthese, 193 (9), pp. 2747–2759, 2016.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics

2015

Tomasik, Brian. The Importance of Wild-Animal Suffering. Relations, 3 (2), 2015.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics

Working papers

2020

Althaus, David; Baumann, Tobias. Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors. Effective Altruism Forum, April 2020.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy

2019

Clifton, Jesse. CLR's Research Agenda on Cooperation, Conflict, and TAI. Alignment Forum, December 2019.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
MacAskill, William; Vallinder, Aron; Shulman, Carl; Oesterheld, Caspar; Treutlein, Johannes. The Evidentialist’s Wager. Global Priorities Institute, November 2019.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar; Conitzer, Vincent. Extracting Money from Causal Decision Theorists. Duke website, August 2019.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory

2017

Oesterheld, Caspar. Multiverse-wide Cooperation via Correlated Decision Making. CLR Website, August 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory

2016

Oesterheld, Caspar. Backup Utility Functions: A Fail-Safe AI Technique. CLR Website, October 2016.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Gloor, Lukas. Suffering-Focused AI Safety: In Favor of “Fail-Safe” Measures. CLR Website, June 2016.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy

Blog and forum posts

2020

Gloor, Lukas. Sequence on moral anti-realism. Effective Altruism Forum, June 2020.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics

2019

Kokotajlo, Daniel. Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage. Alignment Forum, August 2019.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Kokotajlo, Daniel. The "Commitment Races" problem. Alignment Forum, August 2019.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Gloor, Lukas. Rebuttal of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds?. LessWrong, April 2019.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Sotala, Kaj. Sequence on non-agent and multiagent models of mind. LessWrong, January 2019.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness

2018

Oesterheld, Caspar. Moral realism and AI alignment. LessWrong, September 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Althaus, David. Descriptive Population Ethics and Its Relevance for Cause Prioritization. Effective Altruism Forum, April 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Oesterheld, Caspar. Goertzel’s GOLEM implements evidential decision theory applied to policy choice. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, April 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Treutlein, Johannes. Three wagers for multiverse-wide superrationality. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, March 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Market efficiency and charity cost-effectiveness. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, March 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. The law of effect, randomization and Newcomb’s problem. LessWrong, February 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Gloor, Lukas. Cause prioritization for downside-focused value systems. Effective Altruism Forum, January 2018.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy

2017

Oesterheld, Caspar. A behaviorist approach to building phenomenological bridges. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, November 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Gloor, Lukas. Multiverse-wide cooperation in a nutshell. Effective Altruism Forum, November 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Overview: Multiverse-wide Superrationality. CLR Website, November 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Naturalized induction – a challenge for evidential and causal decision theory. LessWrong, September 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Vinding, Magnus. The future of growth: near-zero growth rates. CLR Website, July 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Gloor, Lukas. Tranquilism. CLR Website, July 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Oesterheld, Caspar. A survey of polls on Newcomb’s problem. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, June 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Complications in evaluating neglectedness. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, June 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Treutlein, Johannes. Anthropic uncertainty in the Evidential Blackmail problem. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, May 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Are causal decision theorists trying to outsmart conditional probabilities?. LessWrong, May 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. The average utilitarian’s solipsism wager. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, March 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Treutlein, Johannes. “Betting on the Past” – a decision problem by Arif Ahmed. LessWrong, February 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Treutlein, Johannes. Did EDT get it right all along? Introducing yet another medical Newcomb problem. LessWrong, January 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Is it a bias or just a preference? An interesting issue in preference idealization. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, January 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Decision Theory and the Irrelevance of Impossible Outcomes. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, January 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar; Treutlein, Johannes. Decision Theory Research Overview. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, January 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory

2016

Oesterheld, Caspar. Thoughts on Updatelessness. The Universe from an Intentional Stance Blog, March 2016.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Gloor, Lukas. Identifying Plausible Paths to Impact and their Strategic Implications. CLR Website, August 2016.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Tomasik, Brian. How the Simulation Argument Dampens Future Fanaticism. CLR Website, June 2016.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Daniel, Max. Bibliography of Suffering-Focused Views. CLR Website, August 2016.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics

2015

Oesterheld, Caspar. Two-boxing, smoking and chewing gum in Medical Newcomb problems. LessWrong, June 2015.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Gloor, Lukas. Room for Other Things: How to adjust if EA seems overwhelming. Effective Altruism Forum, March 2015.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Knutsson, Simon. Suffering-focused Views: An Introduction. CLR Website, December 2015.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics

2014

Tomasik, Brian. The Eliminativist Approach to Consciousness. CLR Website, August 2014.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness
Tomasik, Brian. Flavors of Computation Are Flavors of Consciousness. CLR Website, July 2014.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness
Tomasik, Brian. Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Future Suffering. CLR Website, May 2014.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Tomasik, Brian. Do Artificial Reinforcement-Learning Agents Matter Morally?. CLR Website, April 2014.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness
Tomasik, Brian. A Lower Bound on the Importance of Promoting Cooperation. CLR Website, January 2014.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Tomasik, Brian. Reasons to Be Nice to Other Value Systems. CLR Website, January 2014.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory

2013

Tomasik, Brian. A Dialogue on Suffering Subroutines. CLR Website, December 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness
Tomasik, Brian. Dealing with Moral Multiplicity. CLR Website, December 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Tomasik, Brian. International Cooperation vs. AI Arms Race. CLR Website, December 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Tomasik, Brian. Possible Ways to Promote Compromise. CLR Website, November 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Tomasik, Brian. Charity Cost-Effectiveness in an Uncertain World. CLR Website, October 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Tomasik, Brian. Differential Intellectual Progress as a Positive-Sum Project. CLR Website, October 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Tomasik, Brian. Education Matters for Altruism. CLR Website, September 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Tomasik, Brian. Gains from Trade through Compromise. CLR Website, July 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Tomasik, Brian. Should We Base Moral Judgments on Intentions or Outcomes?. CLR Website, July 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Tomasik, Brian. Against Wishful Thinking. CLR Website, April 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Tomasik, Brian. How Would Catastrophic Risks Affect Prospects for Compromise?. CLR Website, February 2013.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory

2011

Tomasik, Brian. Risks of Astronomical Future Suffering. CLR Website, December 2011.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy

2009

Tomasik, Brian; Kivman, Evgueni. Die ethische Relevanz von Wildtierleid. CLR Website, July 2009.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics

2006

Tomasik, Brian. Hedonistic vs. Preference Utilitarianism. CLR Website, January 2006.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics

Talks

2019

Leskelä, Anni. Coalitions and compromise in multipolar AI scenarios. November 2019, S-risk Workshop.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Clifton, Jesse. Rational Crisis Bargaining. November 2019, S-risk Workshop.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Althaus, David. Reducing risks from malevolent, technologically enhanced humans. November 2019, S-risk Workshop.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Sotala, Kaj. Why dissolving suffering seems like a tractable approach. November 2019, S-risk Workshop.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Clifton, Jesse. Open-source learning: A bargaining approach. October 2019, EAG London.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Clifton, Jesse. Decision theory research agenda. May 2019, EAF Research Retreat.
BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Gloor, Lukas. History of s-risk research at EAF (with Q&A). May 2019, EAF Research Retreat.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Treutlein, Johannes. Modeling multiverse-wide superrationality and acausal trade. May 2019, EAF Research Retreat.
BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Surrogate goals. May 2019, EAF Research Retreat.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy

2018

Gloor, Lukas. Absence of desire theories and pleasure's role in motivation. July 2018, Conference of the International Society for Utilitarian Studies (ISUS).
BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Treutlein, Johannes. Global Consequentialism for Machines. July 2018, 15th Conference of the International Society for Utilitarian Studies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.
BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Treutlein, Johannes. How the Decision Theory of Newcomb-Like Problems Differs Between Humans and Machines. July 2018, Decision Theory and the Future of Artificial Intelligence II, LMU Munich.
BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Newcomb’s Problem, the Prisoner’s Dilemma and Large Universes. July 2018, 15th Conference of the International Society for Utilitarian Studies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Oesterheld, Caspar. Multiverse wide Cooperation. January 2018, EAG London (Advanced talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7S95YOIy8k).
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory

2017

Daniel, Max. An Overview of the AI Safety Landscape. November 2017, Workshop on Reliable Artificial Intelligence 2017.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Oesterheld, Caspar; Treutlein, Johannes. Decision Theory Research at FRI. November 2017, EAGxBerlin.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Daniel, Max. KI als ethische Priorität?. November 2017, AI Safety Workshop in Munich.
BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Daniel, Max. S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks, and how to prevent them. November 2017, EAGxBerlin.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Daniel, Max. Public one-on-one debate with Robin Hanson on risks and benefits of Artificial Intelligence. October 2017, University of Zurich.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Donnelly, Ruairí. Moral Trade. August 2017, EAG San Francisco.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory
Daniel, Max. S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks, and how to prevent them. June 2017, EAG Boston.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Daniel, Max. Moral threats: the most plausible route to dystopia?. April 2017, Future of Humanity Institute.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Knutsson, Simon. Suffering-Focused Ethics and Effective Altruism. April 2017, Stockholm University.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Daniel, Max. Warum wir uns jetzt auf superintelligente Maschinen vorbereiten sollten. January 2017, AI Safety Workshop in Mainz at a "Stipendiaten machen Programm" event of the German Academic Scholarship Foundation.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy

2016

Knutsson, Simon. How Many Non-human Animals Should There Be?. November 2016, Sentience Conference.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics
Oesterheld, Caspar. Künstliche Intelligenz und Effektiver Altruismus. October 2016, EAGxBerlin.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Gloor, Lukas; Althaus, David. Worst-case AI safety / backup goals. August 2016, EAG San Francisco.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy
Daniel, Max. Warum wir uns jetzt auf superintelligente Maschinen vorbereiten sollten. July 2016, German Scholarship Foundation Research Seminar.
BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy

Awards


Get involved