Peer-reviewed publications

2019

Baum, Seth D; Armstrong, Stuart; Ekenstedt, Timoteus; Häggström, Olle; Hanson, Robin; Kuhlemann, Karin; Maas, Matthijs M; Miller, James D; Salmela, Markus; Sandberg, Anders; Sotala, Kaj; Torres, Phil; Turchin, Alexey; Yampolskiy, Roman V

Long-term trajectories of human civilization (Journal Article)

Foresight, 21 (1), pp. 53-83, 2019.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Approval-directed agency and the decision theory of Newcomb-like problems (Journal Article)

Synthese, 2019, (Runner-up in the "[AI alignment prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4WbNGQMvuFtY3So7s/announcement-ai-alignment-prize-winners-and-next-round)").

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

2018

Oesterheld, Caspar

Robust program equilibrium (Journal Article)

Theory and Decision, 86 (1), 2018.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

2017

Sotala, Kaj

How feasible is the rapid development of artificial superintelligence? (Journal Article)

Physica Scripta, 92 (11), 2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Sotala, Kaj; Gloor, Lukas

Superintelligence as a Cause or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering (Journal Article)

Informatica, 41 (4), 2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Knutsson, Simon; Munthe, Christian

A Virtue of Precaution Regarding the Moral Status of Animals with Uncertain Sentience (Journal Article)

Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics, 30 (2), 2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Other)

2016

Oesterheld, Caspar

Formalizing Preference Utilitarianism in Physical World Models (Journal Article)

Synthese, 193 (9), pp. 2747–2759, 2016.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

2015

Tomasik, Brian

The Importance of Wild-Animal Suffering (Journal Article)

Relations, 3 (2), 2015.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Working papers

2020

Althaus, David; Baumann, Tobias

Reducing long-term risks from malevolent actors (Online)

2020, visited: 29.04.2020.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

2019

Clifton, Jesse

CLR's Research Agenda on Cooperation, Conflict, and TAI (Online)

2019.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

MacAskill, William; Vallinder, Aron; Shulman, Carl; Oesterheld, Caspar; Treutlein, Johannes

The Evidentialist’s Wager (Online)

2019.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar; Conitzer, Vincent

Extracting Money from Causal Decision Theorists (Online)

2019.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

2017

Oesterheld, Caspar

Multiverse-wide Cooperation via Correlated Decision Making (Online)

2017, (Last update: 2017-08-10).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

2016

Oesterheld, Caspar

Backup Utility Functions: A Fail-Safe AI Technique (Online)

2016.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Gloor, Lukas

Suffering-Focused AI Safety: In Favor of “Fail-Safe” Measures (Online)

2016.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Blog and forum posts

2020

Gloor, Lukas

Sequence on moral anti-realism (Online)

2020.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

2019

Kokotajlo, Daniel

Soft takeoff can still lead to decisive strategic advantage (Online)

2019.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Kokotajlo, Daniel

The "Commitment Races" problem (Online)

2019.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Gloor, Lukas

Rebuttal of Christiano and AI Impacts on takeoff speeds? (Online)

2019.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Sotala, Kaj

Sequence on non-agent and multiagent models of mind (Online)

2019.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness)

2018

Oesterheld, Caspar

Moral realism and AI alignment (Online)

2018.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Althaus, David

Descriptive Population Ethics and Its Relevance for Cause Prioritization (Online)

2018.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Goertzel’s GOLEM implements evidential decision theory applied to policy choice (Online)

2018.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Treutlein, Johannes

Three wagers for multiverse-wide superrationality (Online)

2018.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Market efficiency and charity cost-effectiveness (Online)

2018.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

The law of effect, randomization and Newcomb’s problem (Online)

2018.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Gloor, Lukas

Cause prioritization for downside-focused value systems (Online)

2018.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

2017

Oesterheld, Caspar

A behaviorist approach to building phenomenological bridges (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Gloor, Lukas

Multiverse-wide cooperation in a nutshell (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Overview: Multiverse-wide Superrationality (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Naturalized induction – a challenge for evidential and causal decision theory (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Vinding, Magnus

The future of growth: near-zero growth rates (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Gloor, Lukas

Tranquilism (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Oesterheld, Caspar

A survey of polls on Newcomb’s problem (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Complications in evaluating neglectedness (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Treutlein, Johannes

Anthropic uncertainty in the Evidential Blackmail problem (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Are causal decision theorists trying to outsmart conditional probabilities? (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

The average utilitarian’s solipsism wager (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Treutlein, Johannes

“Betting on the Past” – a decision problem by Arif Ahmed (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Treutlein, Johannes

Did EDT get it right all along? Introducing yet another medical Newcomb problem (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Is it a bias or just a preference? An interesting issue in preference idealization (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Decision Theory and the Irrelevance of Impossible Outcomes (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar; Treutlein, Johannes

Decision Theory Research Overview (Online)

2017.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

2016

Oesterheld, Caspar

Thoughts on Updatelessness (Online)

2016.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Gloor, Lukas

Identifying Plausible Paths to Impact and their Strategic Implications (Online)

2016.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Tomasik, Brian

How the Simulation Argument Dampens Future Fanaticism (Online)

2016, (Last update: 2018-03-15).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Daniel, Max

Bibliography of Suffering-Focused Views (Online)

2016, (Last update: 2016-08).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

2015

Oesterheld, Caspar

Two-boxing, smoking and chewing gum in Medical Newcomb problems (Online)

2015.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Gloor, Lukas

Room for Other Things: How to adjust if EA seems overwhelming (Online)

2015.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Knutsson, Simon

Suffering-focused Views: An Introduction (Online)

2015, (Last update: 2016-03).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

2014

Tomasik, Brian

The Eliminativist Approach to Consciousness (Online)

2014, (Last update: 2018-01-09).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness)

Tomasik, Brian

Flavors of Computation Are Flavors of Consciousness (Online)

2014, (Last update: 2018-06-21).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness)

Tomasik, Brian

Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Future Suffering (Online)

2014, (Last update: 2019-01-03).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Tomasik, Brian

Do Artificial Reinforcement-Learning Agents Matter Morally? (Online)

2014, (Last update: 2014-10-29).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness)

Tomasik, Brian

A Lower Bound on the Importance of Promoting Cooperation (Online)

2014, (Last update: 2016-06-07).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Tomasik, Brian

Reasons to Be Nice to Other Value Systems (Online)

2014, (Last update: 2017-10-17).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

2013

Tomasik, Brian

A Dialogue on Suffering Subroutines (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2017-04-27).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consciousness)

Tomasik, Brian

Dealing with Moral Multiplicity (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2017-11-15).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Tomasik, Brian

International Cooperation vs. AI Arms Race (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2016-02-29).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Tomasik, Brian

Possible Ways to Promote Compromise (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2016-02-05).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Tomasik, Brian

Charity Cost-Effectiveness in an Uncertain World (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2015-12-04).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Tomasik, Brian

Differential Intellectual Progress as a Positive-Sum Project (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2015-12-21).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Tomasik, Brian

Education Matters for Altruism (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2019-05-09).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Tomasik, Brian

Gains from Trade through Compromise (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2018-02-18).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Tomasik, Brian

Should We Base Moral Judgments on Intentions or Outcomes? (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2013-11-28).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Tomasik, Brian

Against Wishful Thinking (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2015-02-17).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Tomasik, Brian

How Would Catastrophic Risks Affect Prospects for Compromise? (Online)

2013, (Last update: 2017-12-04).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

2011

Tomasik, Brian

Risks of Astronomical Future Suffering (Online)

2011, (Last update: 2019-07-02).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

2009

Tomasik, Brian; Kivman, Evgueni

Die ethische Relevanz von Wildtierleid (Online)

2009.

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

2006

Tomasik, Brian

Hedonistic vs. Preference Utilitarianism (Online)

2006, (Last update: 2017-04-16).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Talks

2019

Leskelä, Anni

Coalitions and compromise in multipolar AI scenarios (Presentation)

01.11.2019, (S-risk Workshop).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Clifton, Jesse

Rational Crisis Bargaining (Presentation)

01.11.2019, (S-risk Workshop).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Althaus, David

Reducing risks from malevolent, technologically enhanced humans (Presentation)

01.11.2019, (S-risk Workshop).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Sotala, Kaj

Why dissolving suffering seems like a tractable approach (Presentation)

01.11.2019, (S-risk Workshop).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Clifton, Jesse

Open-source learning: A bargaining approach (Presentation)

01.10.2019, (EAG London).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Clifton, Jesse

Decision theory research agenda (Presentation)

01.05.2019, (EAF Research Retreat).

(BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Gloor, Lukas

History of s-risk research at EAF (with Q&A) (Presentation)

01.05.2019, (EAF Research Retreat).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Treutlein, Johannes

Modeling multiverse-wide superrationality and acausal trade (Presentation)

01.05.2019, (EAF Research Retreat).

(BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Surrogate goals (Presentation)

01.05.2019, (EAF Research Retreat).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

2018

Gloor, Lukas

Absence of desire theories and pleasure's role in motivation (Presentation)

01.07.2018, (Conference of the International Society for Utilitarian Studies (ISUS)).

(BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Treutlein, Johannes

Global Consequentialism for Machines (Presentation)

01.07.2018, (15th Conference of the International Society for Utilitarian Studies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology).

(BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Treutlein, Johannes

How the Decision Theory of Newcomb-Like Problems Differs Between Humans and Machines (Presentation)

01.07.2018, (Decision Theory and the Future of Artificial Intelligence II, LMU Munich).

(BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Newcomb’s Problem, the Prisoner’s Dilemma and Large Universes (Presentation)

01.07.2018, (15th Conference of the International Society for Utilitarian Studies, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Multiverse wide Cooperation (Presentation)

01.01.2018, (EAG London (Advanced talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7S95YOIy8k)).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

2017

Daniel, Max

An Overview of the AI Safety Landscape (Presentation)

01.11.2017, (Workshop on Reliable Artificial Intelligence 2017).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Oesterheld, Caspar; Treutlein, Johannes

Decision Theory Research at FRI (Presentation)

01.11.2017, (EAGxBerlin).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Daniel, Max

KI als ethische Priorität? (Presentation)

01.11.2017, (AI Safety Workshop in Munich).

(BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Daniel, Max

S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks, and how to prevent them (Presentation)

01.11.2017, (EAGxBerlin).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Daniel, Max

Public one-on-one debate with Robin Hanson on risks and benefits of Artificial Intelligence (Presentation)

01.10.2017, (University of Zurich).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Donnelly, Ruairí

Moral Trade (Presentation)

01.08.2017, (EAG San Francisco).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cooperation & Decision Theory)

Daniel, Max

S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks, and how to prevent them (Presentation)

01.06.2017, (EAG Boston).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Daniel, Max

Moral threats: the most plausible route to dystopia? (Presentation)

01.04.2017, (Future of Humanity Institute).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Knutsson, Simon

Suffering-Focused Ethics and Effective Altruism (Presentation)

01.04.2017, (Stockholm University).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Daniel, Max

Warum wir uns jetzt auf superintelligente Maschinen vorbereiten sollten (Presentation)

01.01.2017, (AI Safety Workshop in Mainz at a "Stipendiaten machen Programm" event of the German Academic Scholarship Foundation).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

2016

Knutsson, Simon

How Many Non-human Animals Should There Be? (Presentation)

01.11.2016, (Sentience Conference).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ethics)

Oesterheld, Caspar

Künstliche Intelligenz und Effektiver Altruismus (Presentation)

01.10.2016, (EAGxBerlin).

(Links | BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Gloor, Lukas; Althaus, David

Worst-case AI safety / backup goals (Presentation)

01.08.2016, (EAG San Francisco).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)

Daniel, Max

Warum wir uns jetzt auf superintelligente Maschinen vorbereiten sollten (Presentation)

01.07.2016, (German Scholarship Foundation Research Seminar).

(BibTeX | Tags: Prioritization & Macrostrategy)


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