Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without takeoff or agency?

[epistemic status: speculation] I'm envisioning that in the future there will also be systems where you can input any conclusion that you want to argue (including moral conclusions) and the target audience, and the system will give you the most convincing arguments for it. At that point people won't be able to participate in any online (or offline for that matter) discussions without risking their object-level values being hijacked. --Wei Dai What if most people already live in that world? A world in which taking arguments at face value is not a capacity-enhancing tool, but a security vulnerability? Without trusted filters, would they not dismiss highfalutin arguments out of hand, and focus on whether the person making the argument seems […]

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How Roodman's GWP model translates to TAI timelines

How does David Roodman’s world GDP model translate to TAI timelines? Now, before I go any further, let me be the first to say that I don’t think we should use this model to predict TAI. This model takes a very broad outside view and is thus inferior to models like Ajeya Cotra’s which make use of more relevant information. (However, it is still useful for rebutting claims that TAI is unprecedented, inconsistent with historical trends, low-prior, etc.) Nevertheless, out of curiosity I thought I’d calculate what the model implies for TAI timelines. Here is the projection made by Roodman’s model. The red line is real historic GWP data; the splay of grey shades that continues it is the splay […]

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